Monday, June 20, 2011

Week of June 20th:

Big news this week: New federal funds rate comes out in the United States on Wednesday. Expected to be between 0 to 0.25% change. I don't expect it to change much. The rate is already very low however the Feds might want to keep money flowing between banks to avoid another Lehman Brothers crisis where the banks stop lending to each other. It is still way to early to worry about controlling inflation so rate will not go up, this will also panic the markets. Rates should stay where there are.  Friday durable goods orders and GDP numbers come out. Look for these to either fall short or surpass expectation. If either of these happen the markets should react appropriately. GDP growth is expected to be at 1.9% and I think the economy is in a faster recovery mode than 2%. The dollar is strong, Japan is rebuilding and housing starts were higher than expected.

Now stocks to watch for,
The biannual Paris Air Show took place over the weekend where Boeing (BA $74.16) preview the longest plane every to fly the 747-8. It still seats less than its rival Airbus (EAD.PA $21.44) A380 but it is more fuel efficient and today that is starting to matter more. Boeing was the clear winner at the show. It filled out new orders for the new 747 as well as orders for the brand new 787 Dreamliner, which will start flying commercially this fall. After Airbus has been stealing the market for the last 3 years it looks like Boeing will own the next few with their fuel efficient fleet. I would recommend Boeing and sell Airbus.

With the Greek Debt Crisis still not begin solved the markets are not going to be bullish this week. However for those of you in the United States, stocks and the dollar should fair better than their European counterparts. I do not have and specifics but look for American manufacturing companies that buy a lot of their raw materials overseas. The strong dollar should help them purchase more goods for the same about of money as they did last quarter. I like US Steel (X $41.07) this week on that news.


 

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