Recap of last week. My picks were WY up SI up and PKN down and I am excited to report I was three for three. Also I was especially excited when MSNBC's Jim Craemer endorsed WY on his show Mad Money, good to see Jim is taking tips from my blog.
For the week of June 6th to the 10th.
Employment data came out last week for the month of May and it wasn't great. Unemployment ticked up to 9.1% and the economy added 54,000 jobs. I think the cause for the rise in unemployment has to be more people entering the search for jobs again. This is good news if you look at it like more people expect the economy to be improving and more jobs to become available. This week the big news everyone is looking for is the International Trade report. Expectations is that trade will be worst than last month but I think the actual numbers will beat expectations thanks to a weak dollar.
It's summer time and that means summer vacations, well usually. Consumer confidence is near all time low levels and discretionary income is hard to find. In the United States the vacation industry and those closely associate with it will be hurting. Las Vegas, Cancun, Disney, are all going to be hurting. More specifically airlines are getting hard especially with oil where it is. I would sell airlines associated with the US market with limited international exposure. The airline I think is worst off is US Airways (LCC $8.89). They are the least efficient of the sector and are over exposed to the United States market. Airlines that may fare better would be European based airlines where "holiday" is a bigger tradition and vacations may be taken more than in the United States.
One thing I observed this week is corn. Pretty exciting right? This year is shaping up to be a very bad year for all agricultural stocks. With the floods, tornadoes, and cold springs the crops haven't gotten in the ground yet across the United States. Corn needs to be in the ground very early in the season or else it doesn't have enough time to grow. Corn prices should be higher this year which makes farmers who got their crops in the ground very happy because they will be getting a very good price. Look for farmers to be buying the new John Deere tractors towards the end of summer/early fall. Buy Deere now before this is reflected (DE $81.95). Other agricultural supporters should also do very well with these high prices such as fertilizer suppliers like Potash (POT $55.17). Buyers of corn will be the losers these high prices. Corn is used in almost all foods as high fructose corn syrup so any major buyer of corn should be seeing high prices if they haven't locked in prices already.
Well this is what I will be watching this week. Let me know what you think. Shout out to Jim Craemer, next time you take my stock tips I want credit and $100.
Showing posts with label markets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label markets. Show all posts
Monday, June 6, 2011
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Week of May 30 in the Stock Market
So I think I am going to try something new. I will be covering major events coming up in the week and making my predictions on what the economy will do in the next 5 days (4 this week because of the Memorial Day holiday in the US).
This week of May 30 to June 3.
The first thing I would like to talk about is Germany's goal to abandon nuclear power by 2022. This is a very significant announcement that will hurt an already troubled nuclear industry. The Fukushima disaster that is currently ongoing and has already hurt the nuclear industry. Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel plans to offset the 25% of power currently supplied by nuclear power with renewable resources. My play on this is buy Siemens (SI $128.19) and sell Powershares Global Nuclear ETF (PKN $19.75). Siemens is one of Germany's largest corporations and is heavily involved in renewables. Not only are they involved in renewable energy but everything from high speed trains to healthcare. Powershares Global Nuclear ETF is a global play on the nuclear sector. While its exposure to Germany may be limited I believe that these events will negatively effect the whole industry world wide.
The best piece of investing advise I have been told is look around at what is going on in your world and see investing opportunities. Today as I was stopped by a passing train and thought that this would be a great opportunity to observe where the economy was going. Around 40% of all freight in the United States is shipped by rail so it is a good barometer of the economy Where I am from, in a small town in Northern Minnesota we have a lot of agriculture so grain cars coming back from the fall harvest are expected at all times to be going to and fro. I was intrigued by the number of cars carrying lumber products going by, it had to be about half. Tied with the Mississippi flooding events, the Japanese tsunami, and the Joplin tornado I think wood prices are going to shoot up. Price took a huge hit during the housing collapse and have yet to recover. New building permits have been steadily increasing and with the summer building season starting for us northern states I see an increasing demand for building materials especially lumber. My play on this news is Weyerhaeuser (WY $20.75), Weyerhaeuser is a leading supplier of forestry products and of the lumber cars I saw go by, half were full of Weyerhaeuser wood. I hear your criticism that I live in only a snap shot of the global economy but I feel strongly that what you see around you is a good indication of the economy, but not the only.
A few more comments for the long term, after listening to Fareed Zakaria talk to the Prince Al-Waleen bin Talal about oil prices I agree with the Prince that oil prices will begin to go back down. The Saudi's, the worlds largest producers of oil acknowledged that with $100 a barrel prices the US and others will begin to seek alternatives and 10 years down the road will not need to import oil anymore. I also think that the uprisings in the Middle East have begun to cool down just look at Gadhafi, he is ready for a ceasefire. Speculation that drove up the prices will calm down and I believe $80/barrel will come by September.
Please leave your comments below on what you like and what you would like to see. Also leave your ideas for or against my predictions.
Cheers
This week of May 30 to June 3.
The first thing I would like to talk about is Germany's goal to abandon nuclear power by 2022. This is a very significant announcement that will hurt an already troubled nuclear industry. The Fukushima disaster that is currently ongoing and has already hurt the nuclear industry. Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel plans to offset the 25% of power currently supplied by nuclear power with renewable resources. My play on this is buy Siemens (SI $128.19) and sell Powershares Global Nuclear ETF (PKN $19.75). Siemens is one of Germany's largest corporations and is heavily involved in renewables. Not only are they involved in renewable energy but everything from high speed trains to healthcare. Powershares Global Nuclear ETF is a global play on the nuclear sector. While its exposure to Germany may be limited I believe that these events will negatively effect the whole industry world wide.
The best piece of investing advise I have been told is look around at what is going on in your world and see investing opportunities. Today as I was stopped by a passing train and thought that this would be a great opportunity to observe where the economy was going. Around 40% of all freight in the United States is shipped by rail so it is a good barometer of the economy Where I am from, in a small town in Northern Minnesota we have a lot of agriculture so grain cars coming back from the fall harvest are expected at all times to be going to and fro. I was intrigued by the number of cars carrying lumber products going by, it had to be about half. Tied with the Mississippi flooding events, the Japanese tsunami, and the Joplin tornado I think wood prices are going to shoot up. Price took a huge hit during the housing collapse and have yet to recover. New building permits have been steadily increasing and with the summer building season starting for us northern states I see an increasing demand for building materials especially lumber. My play on this news is Weyerhaeuser (WY $20.75), Weyerhaeuser is a leading supplier of forestry products and of the lumber cars I saw go by, half were full of Weyerhaeuser wood. I hear your criticism that I live in only a snap shot of the global economy but I feel strongly that what you see around you is a good indication of the economy, but not the only.
A few more comments for the long term, after listening to Fareed Zakaria talk to the Prince Al-Waleen bin Talal about oil prices I agree with the Prince that oil prices will begin to go back down. The Saudi's, the worlds largest producers of oil acknowledged that with $100 a barrel prices the US and others will begin to seek alternatives and 10 years down the road will not need to import oil anymore. I also think that the uprisings in the Middle East have begun to cool down just look at Gadhafi, he is ready for a ceasefire. Speculation that drove up the prices will calm down and I believe $80/barrel will come by September.
Please leave your comments below on what you like and what you would like to see. Also leave your ideas for or against my predictions.
Cheers
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